Places after Round 5

Season 50 · chance of each place once Round 5 is over · 10,000 simulations · updated 2026-10-20 19:13 UTC

TeamNow1stTop 3Top 8Top 15
Peaky Decliners: An Authoritative Commentary by Svidler, King et al. (50th edition)181%>99%100%100%
my english needs work219%34%100%100%
If anyone can refute it—don't show me3–44%69%100%
pspspspspsps5–31%68%90%
Riding with the King8–11%71%84%
Wandering Knights6–31%53%87%
100 Suggestions You Must Know4–28%54%87%
50 pawns of Giri10–4%55%72%
50th Parallel Pawns9–9%45%64%
Fifty Shades of Time Trouble7–7%35%58%
J’adoube-Al-Blunder13––41%58%
The horsey don't belong here11–<1%27%44%
Operation Pawnstorm14––27%57%
fifty shades of black and white 16––12%51%
Rooky Horror Pawn Show12–<1%17%30%
Total Tomination15––8%42%
Season 50 midlife crisis18––7%40%
Illiterate Alliteration Explorers17––7%38%
50 Shades of Swindles and Tricks20––2%47%
Yeah, well, that's just like, your opening, man.19––2%42%
Pirc and Roll21–––47%
What a team! And we managed to avoid Prosti22–––41%
Morphy's Mates23–––39%
Pantless to the Max on a Metal Mund Jeep over Planet Lewinberg in Style26–––18%
Knights of the Round Tablebase32–––6%
Old but hoping for stratospheric improvement33–––2%
Silk Road Sacrifices34–––2%
Rookies Of The Year28–––11%
Don't give a check your ascii can't cache29–––10%
50-50 my next move is a blunder30–––8%
King's Landing25–––8%
50 first mates27–––6%
The Tarrasch Talkers24–––7%
Pawn with the Sickness31–––3%
Blunders Without Borders35–––<1%
Rooky Horror Pawn Show fan club37––––
Leningrad School of Blunders36––––
Svidler? I hardly know her41––––
We're not going to TAKE TAKE TAKE it38––––
passed pawn patrol39––––
The Greek Gifty Nifty Fifty42––––
Inexplicable Fianchetto Agenda40––––
Mating for Godot45––––
Fork You Very Much46––––
oh those 64 squares can encompass such immensity44––––
Svidl, Svidler, Svidlest43––––
There Will Be Blunders48––––
The Last Shall be the First47––––
50 Ways to Fork Your Lover49––––
The kannjuring50––––
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ51––––
Not all who blunder are lost52––––
The Woodpushers53––––
Lang and Lloyd R0Bbed Sed in the windy Canadian Alps with a fork54––––

Teams in projected order. <1% = happened in only a few simulations, – = never happened.

Show every place
TeamNow123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354
Peaky Decliners: An Authoritative Commentary by Svidler, King et al. (50th edition)181%12%7%<1%––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
my english needs work219%9%6%7%17%24%16%–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
If anyone can refute it—don't show me3–38%6%6%2%<1%4%11%13%10%5%2%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
pspspspspsps5–10%21%17%7%2%5%7%4%<1%<1%2%4%5%6%4%3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Riding with the King8–2%9%17%21%15%5%1%3%4%3%1%<1%<1%1%2%3%3%3%2%1%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Wandering Knights6–13%18%10%4%1%1%5%7%4%1%2%6%7%7%5%3%2%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
100 Suggestions You Must Know4–10%17%9%3%3%7%5%1%<1%1%4%8%10%8%5%3%2%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
50 pawns of Giri10–<1%3%8%14%18%10%<1%<1%2%5%6%3%<1%<1%1%2%3%5%5%5%4%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––––––––––
50th Parallel Pawns9–2%8%13%13%7%2%<1%2%5%5%3%<1%<1%2%4%6%6%6%5%4%3%1%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Fifty Shades of Time Trouble7–2%5%9%9%4%2%5%6%3%1%<1%2%4%7%9%8%7%6%5%3%2%1%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
J’adoube-Al-Blunder13–––<1%<1%4%15%21%1%1%3%5%4%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%4%9%13%10%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––––––––––––––––
The horsey don't belong here11–<1%<1%2%6%10%9%–<1%1%4%6%4%1%<1%<1%<1%2%5%8%12%13%9%5%1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Operation Pawnstorm14–––<1%<1%2%8%17%13%4%1%2%3%4%3%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%4%10%11%7%4%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––––
fifty shades of black and white 16––––<1%<1%3%9%13%12%7%2%<1%1%3%4%4%3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%3%6%9%7%5%3%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––
Rooky Horror Pawn Show12––<1%<1%3%7%8%<1%<1%<1%2%5%4%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%3%7%13%17%16%9%3%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Total Tomination15––––<1%<1%2%6%10%10%7%2%<1%1%3%4%3%2%1%<1%<1%<1%2%4%7%9%8%7%4%3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––
Season 50 midlife crisis18–––––<1%2%6%9%11%8%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%3%2%<1%<1%1%4%8%9%8%6%4%2%1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––
Illiterate Alliteration Explorers17––––<1%<1%1%5%9%11%8%3%<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%4%3%1%<1%<1%2%5%9%10%8%5%4%2%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––––––––––––
50 Shades of Swindles and Tricks20–––––<1%<1%1%4%9%14%13%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%4%4%3%1%<1%<1%3%6%8%8%5%3%1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––––
Yeah, well, that's just like, your opening, man.19––––<1%<1%<1%2%4%8%13%10%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%3%4%4%3%1%<1%1%4%7%9%9%7%3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––––––––
Pirc and Roll21––––––––<1%<1%4%12%16%11%4%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%3%5%4%2%<1%<1%–<1%1%6%11%9%5%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%–<1%<1%––––––––––––
What a team! And we managed to avoid Prosti22––––––––<1%<1%2%6%11%12%10%5%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%4%4%3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%3%7%9%7%4%2%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––
Morphy's Mates23–––––––––<1%2%5%11%12%9%6%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%4%5%4%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%3%7%8%7%4%2%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––
Pantless to the Max on a Metal Mund Jeep over Planet Lewinberg in Style26–––––––––<1%<1%1%3%5%7%8%9%8%7%4%2%<1%<1%1%3%5%4%1%<1%<1%<1%1%3%4%5%5%4%3%2%1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––––
Knights of the Round Tablebase32–––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%5%7%8%9%9%5%3%<1%<1%<1%1%3%5%4%2%<1%<1%<1%1%3%4%5%4%3%2%1%<1%<1%––––––––––
Old but hoping for stratospheric improvement33––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%1%2%3%4%6%9%10%9%6%2%<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%3%2%<1%<1%<1%1%2%3%5%6%6%5%2%<1%<1%–––––––––
Silk Road Sacrifices34–––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%2%2%3%5%8%10%11%8%4%<1%<1%<1%1%3%4%4%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%3%5%6%6%4%2%<1%<1%–––––––––
Rookies Of The Year28–––––––––<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%5%5%5%5%3%2%<1%<1%<1%1%3%5%4%2%<1%<1%2%5%7%7%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––
Don't give a check your ascii can't cache29–––––––––<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%5%6%5%5%3%1%<1%<1%<1%2%3%5%4%2%<1%<1%2%4%7%7%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%<1%<1%––––––––––
50-50 my next move is a blunder30–––––––––<1%<1%<1%1%2%3%4%5%5%5%4%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%4%5%3%1%<1%<1%2%4%7%7%7%6%5%4%3%2%<1%<1%<1%–––––––––
King's Landing25–––––––––<1%<1%<1%1%3%4%5%5%4%4%2%1%<1%<1%2%4%4%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%4%6%7%8%7%6%5%4%2%1%<1%<1%––––––––––
50 first mates27–––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%5%5%4%2%1%<1%<1%2%5%5%3%<1%<1%<1%<1%3%5%7%8%8%7%6%4%3%2%1%<1%<1%––––––––––
The Tarrasch Talkers24–––––––––<1%<1%<1%1%2%4%4%5%5%3%1%<1%<1%2%4%5%4%1%<1%<1%<1%1%4%6%9%9%8%7%5%4%3%2%<1%<1%<1%––––––––––
Pawn with the Sickness31––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%2%2%3%4%5%5%3%2%<1%<1%<1%1%4%4%3%1%<1%<1%1%3%6%8%9%8%7%6%4%3%1%<1%––––––––––
Blunders Without Borders35–––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%4%8%11%9%4%<1%<1%<1%1%3%5%4%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%6%14%16%4%<1%–––––––––
Rooky Horror Pawn Show fan club37––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%2%3%5%7%10%12%10%6%2%<1%<1%<1%1%2%4%4%3%1%<1%2%9%8%4%2%<1%<1%<1%––––
Leningrad School of Blunders36––––––––––––––––––<1%–<1%<1%3%6%10%9%8%4%2%<1%<1%<1%1%2%3%4%3%2%<1%<1%<1%6%17%11%5%2%<1%<1%<1%–––––
Svidler? I hardly know her41––––––––––––––––––––<1%–<1%<1%<1%1%3%5%8%11%13%9%4%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%4%5%4%1%2%5%8%7%4%1%<1%<1%–––
We're not going to TAKE TAKE TAKE it38–––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%2%4%6%9%12%9%5%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%3%4%4%2%<1%<1%6%10%9%6%2%<1%<1%––––
passed pawn patrol39––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%2%3%6%9%8%4%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%3%4%3%2%<1%7%13%13%10%4%2%<1%––––
The Greek Gifty Nifty Fifty42––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%5%10%12%10%5%2%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%6%6%2%<1%<1%7%14%11%4%1%<1%––
Inexplicable Fianchetto Agenda40––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%2%4%6%6%3%1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%5%5%2%5%13%17%15%7%2%<1%<1%–––
Mating for Godot45––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%5%6%7%7%5%3%1%3%7%5%1%<1%2%6%10%11%7%3%<1%–
Fork You Very Much46––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%1%2%3%4%5%6%8%8%8%5%2%5%6%3%<1%<1%2%6%9%8%7%<1%–
oh those 64 squares can encompass such immensity44–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%2%3%4%5%5%5%4%3%<1%1%3%7%4%<1%<1%3%11%15%12%6%3%<1%–
Svidl, Svidler, Svidlest43–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%1%3%4%5%5%5%3%2%<1%<1%<1%1%5%7%2%1%7%16%16%10%5%2%––
There Will Be Blunders48–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%5%7%9%10%7%3%2%4%5%4%2%4%7%11%11%<1%–
The Last Shall be the First47–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%2%2%4%5%7%8%6%2%2%4%5%4%2%4%10%16%15%<1%–
50 Ways to Fork Your Lover49––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%1%2%2%4%6%9%9%4%1%2%5%5%3%2%7%16%20%1%–
The kannjuring50–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%<1%2%3%4%7%9%5%1%1%3%5%4%2%4%14%33%<1%–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ51–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%1%6%18%15%8%3%3%5%4%2%<1%25%8%
Not all who blunder are lost52––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%2%7%10%10%6%3%3%6%5%1%28%18%
The Woodpushers53–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%<1%<1%2%7%11%8%3%<1%<1%3%33%31%
Lang and Lloyd R0Bbed Sed in the windy Canadian Alps with a fork54–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––<1%2%7%13%13%8%2%12%43%

Each team's chances

Peaky Decliners: An Authoritative Commentary by Svidler, King et al. (50th edition) Now 1 → likely 1
81 1510152025303540455054
1st 81% Top 3 >99%
my english needs work Now 2 → likely 6
19967172416 1510152025303540455054
1st 19% Top 3 34%
If anyone can refute it—don't show me Now 3 → likely 2
3866111310 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 44%
pspspspspsps Now 5 → likely 3
1021177756 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 31%
Riding with the King Now 8 → likely 5
9172115 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 11%
Wandering Knights Now 6 → likely 3
13181057677 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 31%
100 Suggestions You Must Know Now 4 → likely 3
101797581085 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 28%
50 pawns of Giri Now 10 → likely 6
8141810655 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 4%
50th Parallel Pawns Now 9 → likely 5
81313756665 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 9%
Fifty Shades of Time Trouble Now 7 → likely 4
599679876 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 7%
J’adoube-Al-Blunder Now 13 → likely 8
1521591310 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
The horsey don't belong here Now 11 → likely 22
61096812139 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 <1%
Operation Pawnstorm Now 14 → likely 8
8171310117 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
fifty shades of black and white Now 16 → likely 9
913127697 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Rooky Horror Pawn Show Now 12 → likely 22
7871317169 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 <1%
Total Tomination Now 15 → likely 10
6101077987 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Season 50 midlife crisis Now 18 → likely 10
691188986 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Illiterate Alliteration Explorers Now 17 → likely 10
9118591085 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
50 Shades of Swindles and Tricks Now 20 → likely 11
914136885 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Yeah, well, that's just like, your opening, man. Now 19 → likely 11
813107997 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Pirc and Roll Now 21 → likely 13
1216116119 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
What a team! And we managed to avoid Prosti Now 22 → likely 14
6111210797 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Morphy's Mates Now 23 → likely 14
51112965787 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Pantless to the Max on a Metal Mund Jeep over Planet Lewinberg in Style Now 26 → likely 17
578987 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Knights of the Round Tablebase Now 32 → likely 20
578995 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Old but hoping for stratospheric improvement Now 33 → likely 21
69109666 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Silk Road Sacrifices Now 34 → likely 22
581011866 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Rookies Of The Year Now 28 → likely 35
557776 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Don't give a check your ascii can't cache Now 29 → likely 35
56557776 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
50-50 my next move is a blunder Now 30 → likely 36
55577765 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
King's Landing Now 25 → likely 36
678765 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
50 first mates Now 27 → likely 35
78876 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
The Tarrasch Talkers Now 24 → likely 35
5699875 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Pawn with the Sickness Now 31 → likely 37
55689876 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Blunders Without Borders Now 35 → likely 43
8119561416 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Rooky Horror Pawn Show fan club Now 37 → likely 29
7101210698 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Leningrad School of Blunders Now 36 → likely 43
6109861711 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Svidler? I hardly know her Now 41 → likely 31
811139587 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
We're not going to TAKE TAKE TAKE it Now 38 → likely 30
6912961096 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
passed pawn patrol Now 39 → likely 46
6987131310 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
The Greek Gifty Nifty Fifty Now 42 → likely 48
1012106671411 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Inexplicable Fianchetto Agenda Now 40 → likely 46
6651317157 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Mating for Godot Now 45 → likely 50
5677575610117 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Fork You Very Much Now 46 → likely 50
688866987 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
oh those 64 squares can encompass such immensity Now 44 → likely 49
55571115126 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Svidl, Svidler, Svidlest Now 43 → likely 48
77161610 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
There Will Be Blunders Now 48 → likely 51
579107571111 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
The Last Shall be the First Now 47 → likely 51
7865101615 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
50 Ways to Fork Your Lover Now 49 → likely 52
699571620 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
The kannjuring Now 50 → likely 52
791433 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ Now 51 → likely 53
618158258 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Not all who blunder are lost Now 52 → likely 53
710106652818 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
The Woodpushers Now 53 → likely 53
71183331 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –
Lang and Lloyd R0Bbed Sed in the windy Canadian Alps with a fork Now 54 → likely 54
7131381243 1510152025303540455054
1st – Top 3 –

Bars: chance of each place (numbers in %), places 1 to the last left to right.